Carlsen reveals psychological secret: Sindarov the favourite, Gukesh the wild card?

I still remember that night sitting at a small coffee shop on Tran Phu Street, Da Nang, scrolling through chess news on my phone. An old friend – now an amateur player – asked me: 'Who will be world champion?' At that time I hadn't read Magnus Carlsen's assessment. But after reading it, I felt like I was watching a game where both sides had picked up their pieces but no one had made the first move. Carlsen, the former uncrowned king, just released a message that made the chess world take notice: Javokhir Sindarov is the heavy favourite, while D Gukesh – the youngest world champion in history – is the underdog. But is that the whole story? The context of the upcoming World Championship match between Gukesh (India) and Sindarov (Uzbekistan) is not just a clash between two talented young players, but also a showdown between two rising chess training systems. Gukesh, 18, made history by becoming the youngest world champion, surpassing even Carlsen's record. Sindarov, 19, emerged as a phenomenon with comprehensive play and extraordinary composure. Carlsen, in a recent interview, straightforwardly placed Sindarov as the favourite, while acknowledging that Gukesh has a 'higher ceiling'. But behind those words lies a much more complex psychological picture. The core of the puzzle lies in pressure and momentum. Carlsen points out that in a knockout match, the player who takes an early lead gains a huge psychological advantage. Gukesh, though defending champion, is pushed into a position to 'protect' his title under the shadow of a higher-rated opponent. This could cause him to lose his natural flow of moves. Conversely, Sindarov as the challenger has nothing to lose, making it easier for him to play with a relaxed mindset. Carlsen emphasizes: 'If Sindarov wins early, Gukesh will have a very hard time coming back.' This is an observation based on my experience watching dozens of championship matches: once a young player loses confidence, they often collapse faster than expected. However, I think Carlsen deliberately overlooks one thing: Gukesh has a 'higher ceiling' – meaning his ability to reach transcendent form at certain moments. If Gukesh can rediscover the form that helped him win the title, he can absolutely turn the tables. Carlsen has seen this in how Gukesh played in recent tournaments: inconsistent, but when he explodes, no one can stop him. This is the blind spot that fans often miss – under the 'underdog' label, Gukesh hides a powerful weapon: the danger of the underestimated. Another counter-intuitive angle: Carlsen's criticism of the match format – he called it a 'terrible way' to determine the best player. If the match has many draws, who benefits? For Sindarov, who is considered more well-rounded, draws will help him maintain his advantage. But for Gukesh, who has a creative and risky style, the fewer draws, the more opportunities for breakthroughs. So the very format Carlsen criticizes could be a double-edged sword, depending on how Gukesh exploits it. Finally, I see in this match a symbol of the rise of Asian chess. India and Uzbekistan both invest heavily in youth training. If Gukesh wins, Indian chess strengthens its position; if Sindarov wins, Uzbekistan will have its first world champion. To me, someone who lived through the era when Vietnamese chess was still nascent, this is a beautiful moment. Chess is not just about moves; it's about human stories and the desire to transcend oneself. Can Gukesh continue the fairy tale? Or will Sindarov confirm his status? As Carlsen said, the first move doesn't decide everything. But it opens the door for a dialogue between two generations, two chess cultures, and two ways of viewing the highest honour. This match will surely go down in history, no matter the result.